Stockout Risk Estimator

This is the tool you open when a shipment is late and you're refreshing the tracking page. It answers one question: do I run out before the next batch arrives?

Type your current units, your average daily sales, and the days until that next shipment is sellable. The tool divides units by sales to get your days of cover. Then it compares that to your arrival date.

If your cover is longer than the wait, you're fine — breathe. If it's shorter, the tool tells you the day you go dark and how many units you'll be short. That number is your countdown. A product moving 30 a day with 200 units left and a shipment nine days out stocks out in six — three days of zero sales and a rank that bleeds the whole time.

The warning is plain because the situation is plain. There's no clever move at this point except to push the shipment, run a cheaper promo to slow the burn, or accept the gap. The calculator just makes sure you see it coming instead of discovering it from an "out of stock" badge.

Use it weekly on your fast movers, not just in a crisis. The sellers who avoid stockouts are the ones who noticed "cover: 11 days, arrival: 14" a month early and reordered. The ones who panic are the ones who noticed it the day after the last unit sold.

Stranded inventory breaks this math — if some of those units are in the warehouse but not buyable, your real cover is lower than it looks. Fix the strand first, then run the estimate.